Best bets for the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield GC
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PGA Tour golf is back in full swing, albeit without the crowds we're accustomed to. Bryson DeChambeau has been on fire and notched his first win since the season's restart, finishing 23-under after a final-round 65 to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club last weekend.
ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman had DeChambeau to finish in the top 10 (-135), and fantasy analyst Anita Marks had him to finish in the top 5 (+150 at DraftKings), but no one had him as their winner.
The tour next heads to Muirfield Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Workday Charity Open.
Which players are good bets, and which props are worth a look?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Brooks Koepka (12-1)
Fallica: All this talk about DeChambeau the past couple of weeks might have angered the sleeping giant just a little bit. Have you noticed in the past Koepka plays his best with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder? He has been off since a seventh-place finish at Harbour Town because of the precautionary withdrawal at the Travelers, but that finish was by far his best of the year, and the slower greens and forgiving fairways might be just what the doctor ordered this week for Koepka in a field without DeChambeau and Webb Simpson.
Hideki Matsuyama (15-1)
Kezirian: He just seems to enjoy playing Muirfield Village. He won here in 2014 and has fared relatively well throughout his career. All things considered, he has been pretty shaky since the restart, but I am hoping course history outweighs recent form. Plus, he did shoot a 65 last weekend, so maybe he's turning the corner.
Marks: Matsuyama has a good track record at Muirfield Village with a win in 2014 and a few top-15 finishes. I like what we saw last week in Detroit (65 on Saturday), especially on approach shots, which are crucial to win at Muirfield. If his putter makes an appearance this week, watch out.
Justin Rose (20-1)
Kezirian: Among the top names, this is my other pick. He enjoys Jack's place, having won here in 2010 and totaling five top-13 finishes in his past six starts at Muirfield. He did miss the cut in his last start this season but also nearly won the Charles Schwab and placed 14th at the RBC Heritage. He was top nine in tee-to-green in both of those starts. I feel comfortable backing a guy with six worldwide wins since 2017. There should be some slightly better odds out there in the market.
Rose (20-1); top-10 finish +335 at DraftKings, top-20 finish +163 at DK; make cut -295 at DK
Fallica: You can probably find a better price to win on Rose, but it's the other markets in which I really like him this week. In eight trips to Muirfield since 2010, Rose has a win, five top-10s and six top-15 finishes. He has looked much better since the restart and with a return to Taylor Made clubs, posting a third-place finish at Colonial and a top-15 at Harbour Town after a mediocre first round. Rose is again on the "trust" list for any big event.
Rose (20-1); +165 top-20 finish at DK
Bearman: When it comes to golf handicapping, I usually use a mix of past course performance, current form and metrics, both for the course and the player. The event this weekend is sort of a one-off in that it's played at Muirfield Village, site of next week's Memorial, but the greens will be slowed down and rough different, so it will play a little different. How much you factor in past performance here can be argued either way. Rose has played great at this course when it is set up at its toughest, with a win in 2010, a runner-up in 2015, three additional top-10 finishes and a 13th-place finish here last year. In his first two starts back from the break, he was 14th at Heritage and third at the Charles Schwab and was top nine in tee-to-green in both starts, a metric that will play well this week with slower greens and less rough.
Xander Schauffele (20-1); top-20 finish even money at DK
Bearman: Another 20-1 shot I like is Schauffele. He doesn't have the long track record at Muirfield that Rose has, but he did finish T-14 last year at the event and has a great playing style for the way the course is set up this week. Schauffele is 10th in SG: tee-to-green and seventh in adjusted scoring. The greens are smaller at Muirfield than the other courses we've seen so far the past few weeks and not as difficult, putting a premium on making those key 8-to-12-foot putts and work around the greens, two categories Schauffele rates high in (16th putting inside 10 feet and 20th in scrambling). He was T-3 in the first event back at Colonial and faded to T-20th after a first-round 63 at the Travelers. After a week off, I expect Schauffele to play well this week in Ohio.
Long shots
Matthew Fitzpatrick (55-1)
Kezirian: He is not well known, but the Brit has been playing great golf lately. Since the restart, nine of his 10 rounds have broken 70, and the lone outlier was a 70. And he's doing all of this without his caddie, Billy Foster, who has delayed his return to avoid contracting the coronavirus. However, this week, Jim "Bones" Mackay will be on Fitzpatrick's bag. Phil Mickelson's caddie of 25 years should provide some unique insight, and hopefully that aids Fitzpatrick's play.
Kevin Streelman (65-1); top-20 finish +300 at DraftKings
Bearman: In looking outside the 50-1 range, I find a guy who finished runner-up two weeks ago in Connecticut and who has played well at Muirfield Village. Streelman has finished in the top 20 five times, with three top-10s, including a fourth-place finish last year. He holds up metric-wise, 55th in SG: tee-to-green and solid on the greens. Good 3-to-1 value to finish in the top 20.
Ryan Armour (100-1)
Marks: I love Armour this week, and I'm playing him as a winner, top 5, 10, 20, 30, 40 and in matchups. He's an Ohio native who has played well at Muirfield, with two top-25 finishes. Armour was dialed in last week, finishing T-4 in Detroit. Armour fits the bill in metrics needed to win at Muirfield; he's second in driving accuracy this season, T-44 in par-3 scoring and has impressive approach shot and solid putting.
Harold Varner III (100-1)
Kezirian: He has had a pretty uneven start to the PGA's resumption so far. Varner held a lead after the first round at the Charles Schwab and then flirted with making a run in a couple of tourneys, while also missing the cut at the RBC Heritage. All in all, he has been playing quite well. Since the restart, his ballstriking and SG approach rank third, and he ranked eighth last week on tee-to-green. He missed the cut at this tournament last year, but that came after unraveling the previous Sunday at the PGA Championship, shooting 81 in the final group. In his previous start at Muirfield, he was fourth in tee-to-green but struggled with the putter. He's a better player now and enters in great form. Odds of 100-1 are too enticing to pass up.
Prop bets
Gary Woodland (-105) over Jordan Spieth (-115)
Bearman: This course sets up well for Woodland, who is 11th on tour in scoring average and seventh in greens in regulation. He also has a great history at Muirfield, with a T-4 in 2015 and a sixth-place finish in 2011 among his four top-25 finishes. He finished ninth at Colonial in the tour's restart, one of his five top-5 finishes. Not to minimize Spieth, who also has a couple of top-10s at Muirfield, but I like Woodland to have a better weekend. We mentioned earlier that SG: tee-to-green would be key this week. Spieth is 150th on tour and 195th on putts inside 10 feet. Not a great combination for this course.
Matsuyama top-10 finish 2-1, top-20 finish even money at DK
Bearman: Matsuyama continues to be that guy who is always on the leaderboard on Sunday but not the guy who finishes the deal recently. He has five career wins but none since 2017. One of those career wins was right here at the Memorial Tournament in 2014, in a playoff over Kevin Na. Since then, he has a T-5 in 2015, T-13 in 2018 and a sixth-place finish last year, which is what a lot of his recent standings look like: six top-12 finishes, no wins. With him being second on tour in SG: tee-to-green and 19th overall, I expect him to be right there again this week. Not much value in the 15-1 since he hasn't been pulling down the wins, but a top-10 at 2-1 or top-20 at even money are areas in which I would throw my money.
Woodland top-5 finish +750 at DK; Woodland over Jordan Spieth (-105)
Marks: Woodland has become one of the top iron players on tour, which is crucial to win this week. He has teed it up nine times at Muirfield, making seven cuts and two top-10 finishes. He can crush it off the tee with good accuracy, which is a nice combination to make some noise this week.
Cameron Champ top-20 finish +335 at DK; Champ over Matthew Wolff (EV)
Marks: Champ's ballstriking has been epic the past few weeks, with two top-15 finishes. I'm looking for him to pick up where he left off on Sunday, finishing T-12 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I'm banking that his putter gets hot this week.
Maverick McNealy top-30 finish +250 at DK
Marks: I have been all over McNealy for a few weeks now, and he has delivered. No reason to think that will stop this week. He had a T-8 last week in Detroit, due to a solid short game and a magical putter. McNealy is dialed in at the moment and will no doubt continue to make a name for himself the next two weeks in Ohio.
Jerry Kelly top-40 finish 8-1 at DK
Marks: Kelly has hit 80% of fairways and is tied for sixth on tour this season par-3 scoring. Easy money to finish in the top 40.
Henrik Norlander top-40 finish 2-1 at DK
Marks: Norlander was a fairway machine last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which will play well this week in Ohio. His strokes gained on approach were some of the best in the field. If his putter can make an appearance on bentgrass, we will be in the money.
Patrick Cantlay top-20 finish +100, top-10 finish +188 at DK
Fallica: I'm not going to call for the successful title defense, but it would be foolish to think Cantlay won't play well this week. He's even money to finish in the top 20 --- a place he hasn't finished since September -- and almost 2-1 to finish in the top 10.
Viktor Hovland top-20 finish +163 at DK
Fallica: He has played all four weeks since the restart and despite driving to each event, he hasn't shown any fatigue, finishing in the top 25 each week. He didn't have too far to go from Detroit to Columbus and is another player who should handle these greens much better than he has some of the others.
Kevin Streelman top-20 finish +300 at DK
Fallica: I might have missed my chance with Streelman, who played great last week in his last event in Connecticut where he was runner-up to Dustin Johnson. Prior to that, however, he had three missed cuts in a row and a T-47 finish at the Honda Classic. But this is ultimately a horse for course play as he has four top-20s and a pair of top-10s -- including a fourth-place finish a year ago -- in the past five years at Muirfield. At 3-1, I'll take a chance he can post another top-20.
Marc Leishman top-20 finish +200 at DK; Leishman (-150 at DK) vs. Ian Poulter
Fallica: Leishman hasn't played great since the restart, but he was second at Bay Hill and won at Torrey Pines this year, so it's not as if his game has been absent too long. There aren't too many players on tour you'd want to have taking your approach shot than Leishman, and that strength has earned him four top-15s in the past five years here. That's all I ask of him on the leaderboard this week at plus-money. I also like him in his matchup with Ian Poulter, who has played decently since the restart, but his advantage on the greens is a bit muted this week. It's also his first time playing the event since 2009.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
PGA Tour golf is back in full swing, albeit without the crowds we're accustomed to. Bryson DeChambeau has been on fire and notched his first win since the season's restart, finishing 23-under after a final-round 65 to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club last weekend.
ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman had DeChambeau to finish in the top 10 (-135), and fantasy analyst Anita Marks had him to finish in the top 5 (+150 at DraftKings), but no one had him as their winner.
The tour next heads to Muirfield Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Workday Charity Open.
Which players are good bets, and which props are worth a look?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Brooks Koepka (12-1)
Fallica: All this talk about DeChambeau the past couple of weeks might have angered the sleeping giant just a little bit. Have you noticed in the past Koepka plays his best with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder? He has been off since a seventh-place finish at Harbour Town because of the precautionary withdrawal at the Travelers, but that finish was by far his best of the year, and the slower greens and forgiving fairways might be just what the doctor ordered this week for Koepka in a field without DeChambeau and Webb Simpson.
Hideki Matsuyama (15-1)
Kezirian: He just seems to enjoy playing Muirfield Village. He won here in 2014 and has fared relatively well throughout his career. All things considered, he has been pretty shaky since the restart, but I am hoping course history outweighs recent form. Plus, he did shoot a 65 last weekend, so maybe he's turning the corner.
Marks: Matsuyama has a good track record at Muirfield Village with a win in 2014 and a few top-15 finishes. I like what we saw last week in Detroit (65 on Saturday), especially on approach shots, which are crucial to win at Muirfield. If his putter makes an appearance this week, watch out.
Justin Rose (20-1)
Kezirian: Among the top names, this is my other pick. He enjoys Jack's place, having won here in 2010 and totaling five top-13 finishes in his past six starts at Muirfield. He did miss the cut in his last start this season but also nearly won the Charles Schwab and placed 14th at the RBC Heritage. He was top nine in tee-to-green in both of those starts. I feel comfortable backing a guy with six worldwide wins since 2017. There should be some slightly better odds out there in the market.
Rose (20-1); top-10 finish +335 at DraftKings, top-20 finish +163 at DK; make cut -295 at DK
Fallica: You can probably find a better price to win on Rose, but it's the other markets in which I really like him this week. In eight trips to Muirfield since 2010, Rose has a win, five top-10s and six top-15 finishes. He has looked much better since the restart and with a return to Taylor Made clubs, posting a third-place finish at Colonial and a top-15 at Harbour Town after a mediocre first round. Rose is again on the "trust" list for any big event.
Rose (20-1); +165 top-20 finish at DK
Bearman: When it comes to golf handicapping, I usually use a mix of past course performance, current form and metrics, both for the course and the player. The event this weekend is sort of a one-off in that it's played at Muirfield Village, site of next week's Memorial, but the greens will be slowed down and rough different, so it will play a little different. How much you factor in past performance here can be argued either way. Rose has played great at this course when it is set up at its toughest, with a win in 2010, a runner-up in 2015, three additional top-10 finishes and a 13th-place finish here last year. In his first two starts back from the break, he was 14th at Heritage and third at the Charles Schwab and was top nine in tee-to-green in both starts, a metric that will play well this week with slower greens and less rough.
Xander Schauffele (20-1); top-20 finish even money at DK
Bearman: Another 20-1 shot I like is Schauffele. He doesn't have the long track record at Muirfield that Rose has, but he did finish T-14 last year at the event and has a great playing style for the way the course is set up this week. Schauffele is 10th in SG: tee-to-green and seventh in adjusted scoring. The greens are smaller at Muirfield than the other courses we've seen so far the past few weeks and not as difficult, putting a premium on making those key 8-to-12-foot putts and work around the greens, two categories Schauffele rates high in (16th putting inside 10 feet and 20th in scrambling). He was T-3 in the first event back at Colonial and faded to T-20th after a first-round 63 at the Travelers. After a week off, I expect Schauffele to play well this week in Ohio.
Long shots
Matthew Fitzpatrick (55-1)
Kezirian: He is not well known, but the Brit has been playing great golf lately. Since the restart, nine of his 10 rounds have broken 70, and the lone outlier was a 70. And he's doing all of this without his caddie, Billy Foster, who has delayed his return to avoid contracting the coronavirus. However, this week, Jim "Bones" Mackay will be on Fitzpatrick's bag. Phil Mickelson's caddie of 25 years should provide some unique insight, and hopefully that aids Fitzpatrick's play.
Kevin Streelman (65-1); top-20 finish +300 at DraftKings
Bearman: In looking outside the 50-1 range, I find a guy who finished runner-up two weeks ago in Connecticut and who has played well at Muirfield Village. Streelman has finished in the top 20 five times, with three top-10s, including a fourth-place finish last year. He holds up metric-wise, 55th in SG: tee-to-green and solid on the greens. Good 3-to-1 value to finish in the top 20.
Ryan Armour (100-1)
Marks: I love Armour this week, and I'm playing him as a winner, top 5, 10, 20, 30, 40 and in matchups. He's an Ohio native who has played well at Muirfield, with two top-25 finishes. Armour was dialed in last week, finishing T-4 in Detroit. Armour fits the bill in metrics needed to win at Muirfield; he's second in driving accuracy this season, T-44 in par-3 scoring and has impressive approach shot and solid putting.
Harold Varner III (100-1)
Kezirian: He has had a pretty uneven start to the PGA's resumption so far. Varner held a lead after the first round at the Charles Schwab and then flirted with making a run in a couple of tourneys, while also missing the cut at the RBC Heritage. All in all, he has been playing quite well. Since the restart, his ballstriking and SG approach rank third, and he ranked eighth last week on tee-to-green. He missed the cut at this tournament last year, but that came after unraveling the previous Sunday at the PGA Championship, shooting 81 in the final group. In his previous start at Muirfield, he was fourth in tee-to-green but struggled with the putter. He's a better player now and enters in great form. Odds of 100-1 are too enticing to pass up.
Prop bets
Gary Woodland (-105) over Jordan Spieth (-115)
Bearman: This course sets up well for Woodland, who is 11th on tour in scoring average and seventh in greens in regulation. He also has a great history at Muirfield, with a T-4 in 2015 and a sixth-place finish in 2011 among his four top-25 finishes. He finished ninth at Colonial in the tour's restart, one of his five top-5 finishes. Not to minimize Spieth, who also has a couple of top-10s at Muirfield, but I like Woodland to have a better weekend. We mentioned earlier that SG: tee-to-green would be key this week. Spieth is 150th on tour and 195th on putts inside 10 feet. Not a great combination for this course.
Matsuyama top-10 finish 2-1, top-20 finish even money at DK
Bearman: Matsuyama continues to be that guy who is always on the leaderboard on Sunday but not the guy who finishes the deal recently. He has five career wins but none since 2017. One of those career wins was right here at the Memorial Tournament in 2014, in a playoff over Kevin Na. Since then, he has a T-5 in 2015, T-13 in 2018 and a sixth-place finish last year, which is what a lot of his recent standings look like: six top-12 finishes, no wins. With him being second on tour in SG: tee-to-green and 19th overall, I expect him to be right there again this week. Not much value in the 15-1 since he hasn't been pulling down the wins, but a top-10 at 2-1 or top-20 at even money are areas in which I would throw my money.
Woodland top-5 finish +750 at DK; Woodland over Jordan Spieth (-105)
Marks: Woodland has become one of the top iron players on tour, which is crucial to win this week. He has teed it up nine times at Muirfield, making seven cuts and two top-10 finishes. He can crush it off the tee with good accuracy, which is a nice combination to make some noise this week.
Cameron Champ top-20 finish +335 at DK; Champ over Matthew Wolff (EV)
Marks: Champ's ballstriking has been epic the past few weeks, with two top-15 finishes. I'm looking for him to pick up where he left off on Sunday, finishing T-12 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I'm banking that his putter gets hot this week.
Maverick McNealy top-30 finish +250 at DK
Marks: I have been all over McNealy for a few weeks now, and he has delivered. No reason to think that will stop this week. He had a T-8 last week in Detroit, due to a solid short game and a magical putter. McNealy is dialed in at the moment and will no doubt continue to make a name for himself the next two weeks in Ohio.
Jerry Kelly top-40 finish 8-1 at DK
Marks: Kelly has hit 80% of fairways and is tied for sixth on tour this season par-3 scoring. Easy money to finish in the top 40.
Henrik Norlander top-40 finish 2-1 at DK
Marks: Norlander was a fairway machine last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which will play well this week in Ohio. His strokes gained on approach were some of the best in the field. If his putter can make an appearance on bentgrass, we will be in the money.
Patrick Cantlay top-20 finish +100, top-10 finish +188 at DK
Fallica: I'm not going to call for the successful title defense, but it would be foolish to think Cantlay won't play well this week. He's even money to finish in the top 20 --- a place he hasn't finished since September -- and almost 2-1 to finish in the top 10.
Viktor Hovland top-20 finish +163 at DK
Fallica: He has played all four weeks since the restart and despite driving to each event, he hasn't shown any fatigue, finishing in the top 25 each week. He didn't have too far to go from Detroit to Columbus and is another player who should handle these greens much better than he has some of the others.
Kevin Streelman top-20 finish +300 at DK
Fallica: I might have missed my chance with Streelman, who played great last week in his last event in Connecticut where he was runner-up to Dustin Johnson. Prior to that, however, he had three missed cuts in a row and a T-47 finish at the Honda Classic. But this is ultimately a horse for course play as he has four top-20s and a pair of top-10s -- including a fourth-place finish a year ago -- in the past five years at Muirfield. At 3-1, I'll take a chance he can post another top-20.
Marc Leishman top-20 finish +200 at DK; Leishman (-150 at DK) vs. Ian Poulter
Fallica: Leishman hasn't played great since the restart, but he was second at Bay Hill and won at Torrey Pines this year, so it's not as if his game has been absent too long. There aren't too many players on tour you'd want to have taking your approach shot than Leishman, and that strength has earned him four top-15s in the past five years here. That's all I ask of him on the leaderboard this week at plus-money. I also like him in his matchup with Ian Poulter, who has played decently since the restart, but his advantage on the greens is a bit muted this week. It's also his first time playing the event since 2009.
